Why humans struggle with randomness

The human mind often tries to identify definite causes or patterns in random events, and it can be a struggle to see outcomes as truly random rather than predetermined by some force or unseen concept. Whether it is rolling dice in a board game or missing work on the day a train derails in a tragic accident, it is hard to look past the idea of fate.

Believing that events are predetermined and that things happen for a reason helps people feel more in control of situations, but it also leads to common fallacies. This article explores the reasons why humans struggle to understand randomness and the impact this can have on decision-making.

Why the human brain recognises patterns

The human brain has evolved over time to recognise patterns in everything. This is a core function of the brain, and it helps people learn from successes and failures, predict future results and survive in a hostile world.

One of the most important ways in which pattern recognition is used is in identifying faces. The brain is trained to notice patterns in how the eyes, mouth and nose are positioned, which not only makes it possible to recognise friends and family but also helps in understanding facial expressions and what they mean.

Aside from recognising the people closest to them, pattern recognition allows people to follow directions and traffic signals in the modern world, study and learn new concepts and understand language. It is also vital for recognising and avoiding hazards.

These abilities evolved over time to improve the chances of survival, and the brain constantly creates neural pathways which allow this information to be stored long term. As a result, pattern recognition is an automatic process which occurs unconsciously, allowing for quick responses.

Yet the brain’s ability to detect patterns can trigger even where none exist. One benign example of this is pareidolia, which results in seeing faces in objects. However, spotting false patterns can have negative impacts too.

What is the maturity-of-chances fallacy and how does it affect thinking?

The maturity-of-chances fallacy, also called the “due” fallacy, is one such example of the brain’s tendency to spot patterns and the negative impact this can have. It is the belief that a random event is more likely or less likely to occur based on past events.

For example, when a coin is flipped, there is an equal chance of it landing on heads or tails. However, if it lands on heads five times in a row, it is tempting to think that the chance of tails coming up next is higher because the opposite result is now “due”. This is a fallacy, as the chance of either outcome is never higher or lower than 50%. Every flip is an independent event with no connection to previous results.

The maturity-of-chances fallacy is the result of the brain looking for patterns and a sense of control over random events. It also comes from a cognitive bias related to small sample sizes. Knowing that there is a 50% chance of the coin landing on heads, people assume that the next flip will be tails to even out the average. In reality, the evening out happens only over a much larger number of flips, with smaller samples showing more variability.

Randomness vs luck

Randomness describes outcomes that cannot be predicted in advance within a system, such as the weather, biological mutations or the roll of a die. Luck, on the other hand, is how those outcomes happen to turn out for a specific individual, such as not getting caught in the rain or rolling the number needed to win a board game.

For some things, it might be possible to improve luck, such as by checking the weather forecast. However, other things, such as a dice roll or the draw of a card in a game, are outside anyone’s control. Despite this, many people still have superstitions that they believe give them a better chance of success.

For example, some people rely on lucky numbers when rolling dice or picking numbers in party games. The roulette wheel odds show that every number has an equal chance of coming up, and the same holds for a fair die. Despite this, many players prefer to pick the same number each time. Although these numbers are not any more likely to come up, the choice allows players to feel more control over the outcome.

How randomness affects decision-making

Because the brain is wired to recognise patterns, the struggle to perceive randomness can interfere with decision-making abilities. The maturity-of-chances fallacy can result in players making poor or risky decisions by playing against streaks. In other areas of life, it can also lead to poor decisions, where there is a belief that a random situation may change for the better or worse based on what has happened previously.

It is important to recognise that random events are independent, and while patterns can help predict the outcomes of future events, they are not always applicable. Randomness affects many situations, and decisions are best based on key facts and probabilities rather than any perceived pattern.

To reduce bias in decision-making, it is also possible to build randomness into decisions. This can help limit the impact of false patterns while also opening up new solutions and allowing fast decisions. Using dice or a coin to choose between actions introduces a level of chance into decision-making.

Can the ability to understand randomness be improved?

Random processes exist all around, and although they often lead to outcomes that look non-random, they are still completely unguided. A failure to recognise this can lead to dangerous fallacies and potentially harmful behaviours. While the way the brain works cannot be changed, a conscious effort can reduce the negative impacts of bias and false patterns.

Coming to terms with the random nature of the world can be frightening, as it means letting go of the control that patterns seem to offer. However, it can also lead to greater self-reliance and a feeling of purpose. By focusing on statistical literacy and thinking in terms of probabilities and facts, people can improve their understanding of randomness and make better decisions in many areas of life.

The editorial unit